Re: [tlug] Re: Post my article on tlug.jp?

["Stephen J. Turnbull" <stephen@example.com>]

Dave M G writes:

 > http://tlug.jp/tmp/dave-mg.html
 > 
 > Please post here if you have any major objections.

No objections to posting it publicly.

 > Corrections on points of fact or grammatical errors

You consistently misspell "Kingsley" as "Kinglsey".

 > I hope you all like it,

Generally, it's very good.  For my taste it's probably about 30% too
long.

AFAICS it's still the case that variety and slickness of apps still
goes to Mac and Windows.  This is the so-called network externality
effect: without paying customers, the app writers won't come, and
without the apps, the customers don't.  (Of course this is not the
whole story, but it's an important influence IMO.)

I have no evidence at the moment, so there's no reason to respond by
editing the article.  But for background, my feeling is that drivers
really are important, although you kind of gloss over that.  Not so
much the customers worrying about supported hardware, but the app
writers.  Note that Microsoft taxes *both sides* of the market.  Not
only does it substantially enforce installation by PC manufacturers,
but it also gets its drivers for free.  My brother has worked on PC
peripheral equipment at DEC and USR, and in both cases he said perhaps
40% of software engineering was directed at Microsoft and Apple
compatibility, a burden borne by the peripheral manufacturers.  He
said it's nuts in most cases to lock out the Linux driver writers, as
far as he can see; he suspects it's arm-twisting from the big customer
more than protecting their own trade secrets.

Some background that probably belong directly in the article:

Ordinary people believe in dumping, but trade economists don't.
Dumping cases are almost entirely driven by the political strength and
historical monopoly power (which trickles down to the unions) of the
domestic industry losing market share.  U.S. companies (including
Microsoft) engage in such "dumping" all the time, but they rarely get
called on it.  What's actually happening is price discrimination: you
cover all the common overhead (eg, non-locale-dependent R&D) in the
market where you have the strong brand (or other protection), and just
recover costs and a sliver of operating profit in the market where
you're still trying to establish a brand.  True dumping (aka predatory
pricing which doesn't even cover direct costs) is even more rare in
international trade than in domestic trade.

Complaints about dumping and other allegedly unfair trade practices
(off-shore outsourcing and H1B visas, eg) play well on Slashdot,
though.  (Or at least they did when I swore off Slashdot for life
because I was sick of seeing them. :-)

Trade economists have been aware for years of the "loss-leader" nature
of pirated software, and on the Free Software Business list (inactive
for several years now) at least one guy from an emerging economy
(Trinidad and Tobago) claimed that MSFT's enforcement activity seemed
strategically aimed at the critical point where professionals started
to depend on Windows-based accounting and so on.  In some larger
markets (Russia, China, and Japan), piracy was backed by government
agencies, so the SPA obviously had to get the USTR to crack down on
that.  I guess this hasn't penetrated the Slashdot consciousness,
though.

So AFAIK Microsoft is aware of the loss-leader effect.  I don't think
they really need to worry about leaked memos, either.  They simply
reply that there's no conspiracy, they'll start distributing free
copies in appropriate ways as soon as they can get piracy down to
comfortable levels.  They can explain the T&T case as "it wasn't worth
cracking down until we saw piracy reached the small business, and then
it took time to get it done."