Re: [tlug] Re: Somewhat OT- open source software for US voting machines

["Kenneth Burling" <burlingk@example.com>]

On Sat, Oct 11, 2008 at 4:35 AM, Stuart Luppescu <slu@example.com> wrote:

On 金, 2008-10-10 at 11:27 -0700, SL Baur wrote:
> The polls are statistically tied
> at the moment.

Really? My favorite prognosticator[1] gives the probability of an Obama
victory as 90.7% at the moment.

Part of his statistical chances to win being 90.8% as you put it are because we rarely go from an 8 year term with one party into another president from the same party.  Obama is not a Republican.  That is what will win this for him.

All the various polls though tend to indicate that they are staying within 3% of eachother.  Every time one of them does something messed up to piss people off, the other has to go and do something just as bad.  Every time one of them does something good to make people happy, they go and say something about their opponent to balance it out.

This is the strangest election cycle in decades.  ^.^