Re: [tlug] About to break down and get an iPhone

[Josh Glover <jmglov@example.com>]

2009/5/8 Edward Middleton <emiddleton@example.com>:

> Martin Killmann wrote:
>
>> Apple will never control ... the cell phone market, ...
>> ... They don't have the products for a monopoly position ...
>
> Apples actions dictate what they are, which is what I was talking
> about.  Their products are clearly capable of taking a monopoly position
> as evidence by their dominance in music distribution.

Hrm, I don't think so. Even their "dominance in music distribution" is
somewhat of an overstatement. They were the first player to build a
good online store that integrated well with their hardware music
player, but now Amazon (full disclosure: my employer) are in the game,
and it seems that as of six months ago, Amazon MP3 downloads accounted
for between 8% - 15% of all paid music downloads:

http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20081215/amazons-mp3-store-one-year-in-no-itunes-killer-probably-wont-be/

Amazon's presence in the market forced Apple to go DRM-free (on some
stuff). Consider the Windows vs. Mac OS situation ten years ago, when
Apple had something like 5% of the market. Did any of their actions
force the monopolist to change their strategy? I personally cannot
think of a case when they did.

Also, I believe that Amazon has distribution rights for all of the
music labels that Apple does, meaning that people have a non-Apple way
to get the same music. This again, does not smell like a monopoly to
me.

I just don't see the Mac offerings ever achieving a monopoly in the
desktop PC market. One important reason for that is that thin clients
are probably the wave of the future. I imagine that five years from
now, the trend of running more and more of your apps in a web browser
will hold for most people. Ten years from now, I imagine that most
apps will live in the cloud, and most people will have a keitai that
will double as a netbook and a docking station at home to send the
display to their 90-inch wide flatscreen LCD.

Seriously.

-- 
Cheers,
Josh